Hexa's 29 predictions for tech and entrepreneurship in 2026
The Hexa team shares their ideas for how tech could change this year
We predict 2026 is when the battles get decided.
After two years of AI exuberance, the shakeout begins. Incumbents face off against AI-native challengers, vertical software confronts horizontal, and Europe charts its own path on climate and sovereignty. The era of experimentation is over: 2026 will separate the lasting from the temporary.
Like every year, the Hexa partners have compiled their predictions for the trends and forces shaping tech and entrepreneurship in 2026.
AI - product
1. Distribution beats intelligence.
Matthieu Vaxelaire: Everyone will have access to “very intelligent” AI. The real scarcity will be elsewhere: proprietary data access, defensible distribution channels, and deep integration into existing workflows. The companies that win will be native to an ecosystem (ERP, CRM, vertical tools), have a structural reason to exist (compliance, switching costs), and can sell before being perfect.
2. Cursor-like UX becomes the default interface for software.
Florent Quinti: Menus and complex navigation disappear from software UIs. Conversational, command-based interfaces replace traditional point-and-click design. The way users interact with software fundamentally shifts toward natural language and intent-based commands.
3. Software becomes proactive.
Florent Quinti: Last year was the year of reasoning software. This year, software providers will launch proactive features that feel like a true coworker, powered by AI-native systems of context. Software will anticipate needs and take initiative rather than waiting for commands.
4. A breakthrough mobile-first AI companion emerges.
Florent Quinti: A new voice-first mobile app will climb the app store charts, reaching $100M in revenue and paving the way for the rise of AI companions. The shift from tools to companions accelerates as people seek constant, personalized AI assistance.
5. One AI device finally finds traction.
Florent Quinti: AI glasses will fail - nobody wants a recording device on their face all day. But one design-first startup, likely from a Scandinavian country, will find the right approach to make AI hardware useful while respecting privacy. Form factor and trust will matter more than features.
AI - agents & infrastructure
6. “Agent Masters” will emerge as a new corporate role.
Quentin Nickmans: Teams dedicated to enabling agentic software within SMBs and enterprises will become standard. They’ll provide the correct context to AI and develop controlling guardrails. As more agentic services deliver work 24/7, critical mistakes become increasingly possible, making output control a key task for these Agent Masters.
7. From AI agents to agent infrastructure maturity.
Matthieu Gombeaud: 2025 was the year AI agents moved from demos to real usage. In 2026, the focus shifts toward the infrastructure required to make them autonomous at scale. This includes agent authentication, permissioning, identity management, and access to enterprise knowledge and tools. We’ll see “agent ops” stacks emerge, similar to DevOps a decade ago.
8. In-app agent builders become standard.
Matthieu Gombeaud: Lovable demonstrated in 2025 that non-technical users want to create task-specific agents. In 2026, this moves inside existing software. In-app agent builders will be embedded directly within CRMs, support platforms, and communication tools, allowing users to create custom agents that understand the context and workflows of a single application.
AI - market dynamics
9. Verticalization will win every battle.
Matthieu Vaxelaire: Horizontal AI will lose every major war in 2026. In real markets, AI doesn’t win through intelligence but through intimate knowledge of the profession, legal responsibility, and operational trust. Horizontal AI sells hope, while vertical AI sells outcomes. If your AI isn’t designed for a specific profession, constrained by its rules, and integrated into its existing tools, it will be replaced.
10. This means vertical software will outperform horizontal software in the markets.
Augustin Celier: Super deep vertical integration into industry workflows is what’s delivering. Horizontal software is also under pressure from investors driving multiples down, worried that AI will replace it with industry-specific alternatives. Vertical software - even legacy players - with access to industry data and workflows will outperform horizontal software in both growth and valuation.
11. Context will matter more than raw data.
Quentin Nickmans: The market will reward incumbents taking a real AI move. Those with fundamental data moats and above all context will integrate AI and soar. The future isn’t just storing files, phone logs, or tickets, but understanding why decisions happen. Existing SaaS companies that integrate AI this way will enjoy a strong 2026, especially as companies shift toward a limited number of strategic software providers.
But not everyone agrees…
12. AI-native startups will outperform legacy incumbents across software categories.
Florent Quinti: ERPs, IT, and all software departments increasingly choose AI-native versions that get better results than old incumbents relying on outdated static systems of record. Purpose-built AI architectures can overcome the context advantages of legacy players. Incumbents will follow Slack’s (Salesforce) path and start blocking new AI players from accessing their data a sign they see the threat as real.
Many early AI companies get acquired by SaaSes.
Amaury Sepulchre: Fear of disruption by fast-growing AI systems drives defensive acquisitions as incumbents buy rather than build, with many early AI native companies ($5-50m ARR) getting bought up by other SaaS companies.
For example, OpenAI or Anthropic acquires Glean.
Florent Quinti: OpenAI and Anthropic’s work versions aren’t yet sufficient for enterprise use, while dedicated players like Glean are gaining significant traction despite lacking their distribution. One of the foundation model leaders will acquire a major enterprise AI player to finally crack the corporate market.
15. The AI correction arrives - painful, but healthy.
Maxime Brousse: After two years of exuberance, the AI ecosystem hits its first real stress test. Startups built on external dependence, thin differentiation, no proprietary data, or flimsy economics won’t make it. This correction clears noise, wipes out fragile models, and leaves room for a stronger generation of AI companies grounded in real utility and real value. 2026 is the year the AI industry grows up.
16. Physical AI moves from experiments to real-world value.
Matthieu Gombeaud: Physical AI moves beyond labs and pilots and starts delivering clear economic value. The most immediate impact will come from autonomous land-based robots paired with AI agents. These systems will first succeed in constrained but high-value environments such as logistics hubs, last-mile delivery, campuses, tourist sites, and educational settings.
Startup landscape shifts
17. Profitability becomes a must for more companies.
Augustin Celier: The majority of SaaS companies (60% according to GP Bullhound) are now EBITDA positive. Last year, we saw profitability evolving from forced trend to mainstream baseline. In 2026, we’ll see the PE EBITDA-driven valuation rationale take over the VC “growth at all cost” approach even more.
18. Funding will remain fragmented, with most capital going to a few AI deals.
Quentin Nickmans: The 2026 funding environment continues to be highly concentrated, with the majority of capital flowing to a handful of AI deals. Series A rounds will be especially rare and complex to close, making it a challenging year for companies seeking growth capital.
19. VC funds will increasingly think like private equity.
Augustin Celier: VC funds continue to struggle raising new funds, with many pivoting toward private equity strategies. Why? Because most of their exits are either directly to private equity or to PE-backed companies. This momentum will continue building in 2026 as the lines between VC and PE blur.
20. The EU software market starts to unite.
Quentin Nickmans: EU SaaS, discounted by 15% over the last decade versus the US, will begin to consolidate into a more united tech market. European sovereignty concerns, tariffs, political initiatives like EU-Inc, and cross-border enablers like Roundtable create favorable conditions for this shift.
21. 2026 becomes a record year for liquidity.
Quentin Nickmans: Long-awaited IPOs finally happen: Revolut, Notion, Stripe, SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, and Databricks go public, with SpaceX and OpenAI ranking among the ten largest offerings ever. The pent-up demand from 4+ years of drought finally breaks.
SF strengthens its gravitational pull
Amaury Sepulchre: SF and the Bay Area continue to be the indisputable center of gravity of the AI revolution and entrepreneurship, with all AI leaders having HQs here (Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, Nvidia...). Founders from all over the word continue flocking to SF to launch their AI startups.
23. Fintech embraces stablecoins for efficiency.
Quentin Nickmans: The fintech world continues to embrace stablecoins at the core of their transformation for more efficiency. Europe starts to develop an alternative to USDT, reducing dependence on US-backed stablecoins.
Area focus - climate
24. Europe emerges as the global leader in industrial decarbonization.
Maxime Brousse: While the US leads foundational AI, Europe builds leadership in low-carbon industry. With strict emissions rules, a cleaner electricity mix, and rising pressure to decarbonize, Europe enters 2026 with structural leverage. This is the year low-carbon processes scale, supply chains shift, and climate standards become competitive advantages.
25. Electrification gains serious momentum.
Maxime Brousse: Electrification becomes an increasingly rational economic choice. Cheaper renewables, improved storage, AI-driven grids, rising carbon costs, and industrial heat pumps reaching maturity make fossil alternatives less competitive. More sectors converge toward electricity, like mobility, heat, manufacturing, and logistics.
26. Climate copilots become real.
Maxime Brousse: The first large-scale climate copilots appear: AI systems that monitor environmental risks, forecast disruptions, and optimize energy, water, and infrastructure flows in real time. Cities, factories, ports, and utilities shift from reacting to crises to anticipating and preventing them.
Area focus - security & trust
27. The end of fake news and the return of truth.
Thibaud Elzière: The sheer volume of AI-generated content will shift our collective default setting to skepticism: if content is digital, we will assume it’s synthetic. The focus will shift entirely from the content itself to its provenance. Unsigned or untraceable content will simply cease to exist in the eyes of the public. We are entering a renaissance of authority and trust; the reputation of the source, the credibility of the media outlet, and the track record of the journalist will become the ultimate gatekeepers of truth.
28. Defense and dual-use technology will get even hotter in Europe.
Guillaume Lerouge: A “security decoupling” between the USA and Europe, triggered by threats and derogatory comments in the US National Security Strategy, shows no sign of abating. The recent debate around Greenland is yet another case in point. European states and the EU will therefore keep ramping up financing directed toward EU-designed and EU-built defense technology, as outlined in the ReArm Europe plan.
29. Defense platforms pioneered in Ukraine will spread globally.
Guillaume Lerouge: Tactics, techniques, and procedures from the Ukrainian battlefield will keep appearing in different contexts worldwide, including civilian security. Expect more incidents like unexplained drone flights near sensitive infrastructure and deadly systems distributed more widely. The need for protection measures and technological solutions will increase.
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